Scandinavian Rail Market Insight 2017 – Forecast 2025

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Scandinavian Rail Market Insight draws its perspectives from the observation and analysis of key players in the rail industries of Denmark, Norway and Sweden. Within that remit, we have primarily focused on those companies which were identified as having a strong involvement in the supply of rail-oriented products and components, or the provision of services specifically related to railway technology. Providers of industry standard products and civil works were not considered.



Scandinavian Rail Market Insight 2017 – Forecast 2025

A good way to understand the attractiveness of a specific market sector is to analyse the structure of that market and the behaviour of the companies that are operating in it. Scandinavian Rail Market Insight, prepared by ASTRAN Business Consulting GmbH is intended to provide a comprehensive insight into the railway markets of Scandinavia, as represented by the three countries of Denmark, Norway and Sweden. This includes a forward look at the prospects for the local rail industry until 2025, in terms of market capacity and market attractiveness, together with anticipated developments, trends and market drivers.

In addition, this report provides a general economic-political evaluation of the rail transport market and the national rail industries in the Scandinavian region. We have analysed the existing structure of the national rail industries to consider the total number of companies, the national sales volume, the number of employees, and the rate of return as well as expected future developments. Another guide to future developments is the current activity in terms of government-supported research and funding programmes plus academic research focused on railway technology. Looking ahead to 2025, the report provides a forecast for the anticipated domestic sales development across the region in terms of total market volume. As well as highlighting possible business opportunities for new players in the rail sector, the report also looks at other influential trends such as liberalisation and digitisation.


Executive Summary

The Scandinavian countries of Denmark, Norway and Sweden are aware that modern transport systems are vital to defending their top ranking position. All three countries have therefore instigated long term programmes to develop modern transport systems that will make traffic flow easier, faster and safer and will increase the competitiveness of business and industry, improve urban environment and promote regional development. These prospects have to be seen against a backdrop of deregulated, privatised freight and passenger transport services which has led to rising
investment in modern rolling stock. At the same time, the Scandinavian countries are also embarking on historically large infrastructure investments, exceeding the 100 billion Euro threshold over the next ten years.

The Scandinavian market is characterised by the presence of several large companies operating at an international level, either as system houses or having the character of a system house, as well as a broad supplier base of small and medium-sized enterprises. In 2013, the companies in the Scandinavian rail supply industry employed about 33,000 staff members and reached a domestic sales volume of 4.1 billion Euro. Despite the strong influence of the global financial and economic crises in 2009, the compound annual growth rate of the whole rail supply industry in Scandinavia averaged 4.1% during the period of 2009 to 2015.

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ASTRAN Business Consulting GmbH



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Table of Contents

List of Figures. 5
List of Tables. 6
List of Abbreviations. 7
1. Preface. 9
2. Executive Summary. 10
3. Objectives and Differentiations. 18
3.1. Study Method. 18
3.2. Definition and Differentiation. 19
4. Introduction. 23
5. Country Profiles. 27
6. The Scandinavian Railway Market. 29
6.1. The Railway Market in Denmark. 29
6.2. The Railway Market in Norway. 32
6.3. The Railway Market in Sweden. 35
6.4. Participants in the Scandinavian Rail Sector. 39
6.5. Pre-Qualification and Bidding Process. 49
7. The Scandinavian Rail Supply Industry. 50
7.1. Performance of the Scandinavian Rail Supply Industry. 50
7.2. Structure of the Scandinavian Rail Supply Industry. 61
8. Evaluation of Market Attractiveness. 67
9. Research Activities in the Rail Sector. 70
9.1. Scandinavian University Landscape in Rail Technology. 70
9.2. Research Projects of the Scandinavian Rail Sector. 72
9.3. Cluster Programme and Industry Associations. 75
10. Forecast for the Development of the Scandinavian Rail Sector to 2025. 78
10.1. Future Challenges and Market Drivers. 78
10.2. Development of Market Volume up to 2025. 83
10.3. Development of Market Attractiveness until 2025. 90
11. Conclusion. 92
12. Appendix. 93

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